As Jobs Surge, Term Structure of Unemployment Remains Distorted
The US economy added 321,000 payroll jobs in November, the best in almost three years. Strong upward revisions to September and October numbers boosted the 12-month gain to 2,756,000, a new high for...
View ArticleUpdate: By One Measure, It’s Now Cheaper to Drive Than Ever Before
In August, I posted an item showing how many miles you could drive your car on an hour’s wages. At that time, the average US price for gasoline was $3.60 per hour. Based on an average wage for...
View ArticleAs Unemployment Rate Hits a New Low, More Slack Remains in the Labor Market...
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today that the unemployment rate dropped to 5.6 percent in December, a new low for the recovery. For the first time in years, the unemployment rate has fallen to...
View ArticleRevisions Push Private Payroll Job Gains to Levels Not Seen Since Dot.Com Boom
Strong upward revisions reported yesterday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics pushed US payroll job gains to levels not seen since the dot.com boom of the 1990s. According to preliminary data, the...
View ArticleDeconstructing ShadowStats (Part 2): In Search of an Alternative Measure of...
A few weeks ago, I posted a critique of the alternate inflation measure devised by John Williams for his popular website ShadowStats.com. Several responders asked if I could also comment on Williams’...
View ArticleThe Risk of Working Part-time Involuntarily
Abstract This column presents findings indicating that, though longstanding, involuntary part-time work is an important phenomenon that remains largely overlooked. In the U.S. labor market, the number...
View ArticleThe Workweek of Part-Time Workers
photo: Jeffrey Smith ABSTRACT. Data on weekly work schedules indicate the coexistence of two groups of part-time workers. The first group represents about 40 percent of part- time employment and...
View ArticleWanted: Soft Skills
When Diogo Barbosa was hired to work at a construction site for the subway in Rio de Janeiro, he did not give much thought to the path that took him from the streets of a Rio slum, to the work site of...
View ArticleJanet Yellen’s Quiet Revolution
Donald Trump turned his rhetorical bazooka on Janet Yellen this week, accusing the Fed chair of being “highly political” and merely doing President Barack Obama’s bidding by declining to raise interest...
View ArticleVoters are Angry about Free Trade. What is the Right Policy Response?
The two most watched candidates of this presidential election season, Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders, have put anger over the effects of free trade at the center of their campaigns. In doing so, they...
View ArticleVoters Are Angry About Free Trade. What Is the Right Policy Response?
photo: DonkeyHotey The two most watched candidates of this presidential election season, Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders, have put anger over the effects of free trade at the center of their campaigns....
View ArticleDoes the Social Safety Net Provide Enough Incentive to Work?
photo: Jason Howie One of the most common criticisms of social safety net programs is that they discourage work. As House Speaker Paul Ryan has put it, they risk becoming a “hammock that lulls...
View ArticleWhat Does the Unemployment Rate Measure? Labor Market Slack or the Social...
photo: Rui Duarte The unemployment rate published monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics is one of the most widely watched of all economic indicators. But why? What does it really measure? The news...
View ArticleHow Occupational Licensing Undermines Labor Fluidity
photo: yy yeung A healthy economy requires a fluid labor market. Even when total employment and output are stable, the labor market is in constant motion. Jobs disappear when firms close or downsize....
View ArticleA Lesson in Unintended Consequences: How Clinton’s Policies Would Raise...
photo: Marc Nozell Hillary Clinton is often said to be a policy wonk, deeply enmeshed in specifics and details, but that may be a mischaracterization. In some ways, her approach seems disturbingly...
View ArticleTrade and Jobs: Why the Protectionist Cure Could be Worse Than the...
photo: Steven Straiton Dramatic promises to restrict international trade were a signature element of Donald Trump’s presidential campaign. So far, he seems to be following through, with an early...
View ArticleWhat Is the Nairu and Why Does it Matter?
photo: (Mick Baker)rooster In December 2016, after a year-long pause, the Fed resumed its tightening of monetary policy. As usual, the action took the form of a quarter point increase in the target...
View ArticleHow Does the Obama Jobs Record Score Against Other Presidents? (Let’s Be Fair)
As Barack Obama prepares to leave office, there has been a lot of talk about his record of job creation. The raw numbers look pretty good: Payroll jobs increased by some 11 million from the quarter...
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